Lin Zhixun: LED industry should not decline next year
Lin Zhixun, deputy director of the Industrial Economics and Trends Research Center of the Industrial Technology Research Institute of Taiwan, pointed out that from the current economic situation, LED is one of the few industries that should not show a recession next year. Last year, the global LED lighting market was driven by the growth of emerging applications and demand in Asia, reaching US$330 million, with an annual growth rate of 60%. The mainland has replaced Japan and become the second largest lighting city in the world after the United States. In 2012, the global LED lighting market will grow to 1.4 billion US dollars, especially the growth momentum of architectural lighting and commercial lighting will be the strongest, and the most advantageous development direction of Taiwan LED manufacturers at this stage lies in component integration.
According to the statistics of the Industrial Technology Research Institute, the global lighting market reached US$113.2 billion in 2007, a 10% increase from 2006. Including the lighting market size of about 91.2 billion US dollars, the light source market size of about 22 billion US dollars. Because the more convenient the electricity is, the more lighting consumption will be. Therefore, in 2007, the United States is still the world's largest lighting market, with a global market share of about 20%. In 2007, China has surpassed Japan to become the world's second largest lighting market, accounting for About 17%. Among them, the LED lighting market in 2007 was about 330 million US dollars, with an annual growth rate of 60%, mainly due to factors such as the growth of demand in the Asian region and the increase in the number of manufacturers investing in LED lighting.
Lin Zhixun said that in recent years, there have been many changes in the consumer demand in the lighting market. From the past highlights and cost considerations, the evolution has gradually evolved to focus on safety and comfort, as well as cost of use and energy conservation considerations. It is estimated that by 2012, the global LED lighting market will grow to 1.4 billion US dollars, mainly driven by high energy demand and high energy prices. In addition, the slow growth of traditional light source technology will face bottlenecks, and LED application technology and cost reduction will also be reduced. The obstacles for LED lighting applications will be greatly reduced, and both architectural lighting and commercial lighting will become the main kinetic energy for LED lighting growth in the next few years.
In terms of individual application market, Lin Zhixun said that the main application is still dominated by multi-light color, but the usage rate of white LED has gradually increased from the past 15% to 48%. White LEDs, including garden lights, searchlights, step lights, and balcony lights, are growing rapidly. According to the estimates of the Institute of Industrial Engineering, the architectural landscape lighting market was about 151 million US dollars in 2007, 32% in Europe and 31.2% in mainland China. It is estimated to grow to 684 million US dollars in 2012.
Commercial lighting includes applications such as font/contour lighting, consumer hand-held lighting, outdoor lighting, and retail display lighting. According to the research statistics of the Industrial Technology Research Institute, the global font/contour lighting market in 2007 was about US$46 million, and it is estimated that it will grow to US$100 million by 2012. Lin Zhixun pointed out that the current main application market for font/contour lighting is still dominated by small projects. The main customers are large global chain companies, including McDonald's, Wal-mart and so on. Due to the small size of the manufacturers and the phenomenon of territorialism, there are currently more than 6,000 font/contour lighting manufacturers in the United States.
In terms of consumer hand-held lighting products, the global market size in 2007 was about 43 million US dollars, and it is estimated that it will grow to 100 million yuan by 2012. Lin Zhixun said that the current LED outdoor lighting products are the largest producers in the world in mainland China, and the leading power of international companies such as Nichia and Lumileds are showing signs of decline. The product uses high-brightness LEDs, and the price and reliability are the key to whether the market share of the products can be expanded.
As for outdoor lighting, ITRI estimates that the global LED outdoor lighting market will be approximately $8 million in 2007 and will grow to $41 million in 2012. Asia is the world's largest application market for LED outdoor lighting, especially in Taiwan and mainland China. For example, from 2007 to 2008, the two sides of the Taiwan Strait have successively announced LED street lamp standards and tendered for installation.
Retail display lighting was approximately $19 million in 2007 and is projected to grow to $193 million by 2012. Mainly used in display cabinets, integrated with the body to highlight the characteristics of the goods, of which refrigeration air conditioning lamps are the focus of development in recent years. LED lighting is about 6 million US dollars in replacing the traditional light source market. It accounts for about 35% of the US market and about 40% of Europe. It is estimated that the market will grow to 93 million US dollars by 2012.
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