[In-depth analysis of the market structure of new energy vehicles, the increasing risk of overcapacity risks] In response to the current high risk of overcapacity in the new energy automotive market, the government should adopt relevant policies and regulations to promote the healthy and orderly development of the industry; and optimize the government subsidies and support methods. Industry supervision and management; changes in local government performance evaluation standards, and crack down on local protectionism and other measures.
The new energy automobile industry is one of the strategic emerging industries that China has focused on developing. It is also listed in the “Made in China 2025†as one of the ten key development areas. In March 2018, the Premier of the State Council, Li Keqiang, stated in the government work report: “In-depth structural reforms on the supply side, the acceleration of the construction of strong manufacturing countries, and the development of new energy vehicles and other industries.†Accelerating the development of new energy automobile industry can ease the current situation. The pressure of energy and environmental protection and the cultivation of new economic growth points can also promote China’s transformation from a large traditional car country to a modern automobile power.
Thanks to the strong support of national policies, various domestic investment entities competed to enter the field of new energy vehicle manufacturing and promote the rapid development of the new energy automotive industry. According to statistics, the total number of new energy vehicles produced in China in 2017 has reached 774,000, which is 63.3 times that in 2012. The cumulative production and sales volume of the market reached 1.571 million, and it has been produced and sold worldwide for two consecutive years. Ranked first, accounting for more than half of the global new energy vehicle market. However, along with the rapid development of the new energy automobile industry, the risk of overcapacity in the industry is continuously accumulating. It is imperative to take measures to curb the overcapacity in the new energy vehicle market.
The risk of overcapacity in the new energy auto market is increasing
(I) Planned production capacity has exceeded expectations, and the risk of overcapacity is gradually accumulating
In June 2012, the development goal set in the “Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020)†issued by the State Council is: By 2020, the production capacity of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles will reach 200 10,000 cars. However, according to data released by the China Circulation Association, from 2015 to the end of June 2017, more than 200 new energy vehicle projects have been completed in China, and the related investment amount is as high as over 1,000 billion yuan. The capacity planning of energy vehicles exceeds 20 million vehicles, which is 10 times the target set in the “Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020)â€. The above data shows that the overcapacity in the domestic new energy automobile market has already appeared.
(II) All kinds of capital are competing in the field of new energy vehicles, rapidly forming large production capacity
In recent years, along with the country’s strong support for the new energy automotive industry, various types of capital have flooded into the field of new energy vehicles, setting off a nationwide “car construction campaignâ€. First of all, the traditional car companies have announced a geometric production and sales growth plan, such as the Beiqi New Energy Project to achieve 500,000 annual production and sales in 2020, BYD plans to invest 15 billion yuan in 2020 to achieve 600,000 capacity. Second, a group of emerging Internet companies have entered the new energy vehicle market across borders, such as LeTV, Weilai Auto, Car and Home. Internet giants such as JD.com and Tencent have invested in the above-mentioned car companies. In addition, some leading companies in other industries have begun to engage in new energy vehicles. For example, Gree Group, Wuliangye Group, CITIC Group, and Hanergy Group have invested in the new energy automotive industry in various ways. In particular, many investors who have no experience in building cars have entered the market one after another and quickly created a large amount of production capacity in the short term and laid down hidden dangers for overcapacity.
(III) The rapid development of supporting industries for new energy vehicles, and power batteries are facing serious overcapacity
The rapid growth in the production and sales volume of domestic new energy vehicle vehicles has driven the development of related supporting industries, especially the development of the power battery industry is unusually rapid. The data shows that China’s current power battery shipments account for more than 70% of the global market share. From 2014 to 2016, the average annual growth rate of domestic power battery industry was as high as 368%, 324%, and 78.6%, respectively. The investment in the battery field exceeds 100 billion yuan. It is estimated that if the current production capacity is fully released, it will generate a huge capacity of 170 Gwh/year, which is approximately seven times more than the actual market demand, and can meet the annual output of 5 million electric passenger cars and 500,000 electric buses. The total demand, and in accordance with the relevant planning, China will not reach such a huge market demand by 2025.
Analysis of the Causes of Overcapacity in New Energy Vehicle Market
(I) Over-subsidy and other industrial policies increase the risk of overcapacity
For more than 20 years, the state has introduced a series of policies to support the development of new energy vehicles, including subsidies for businesses and consumers, support for technological research and development, and tax incentives. In particular, the government's financial subsidies are the biggest driving force for the consumption of new energy vehicles. In addition to central subsidies, many local governments subsidize new energy vehicles according to a ratio of 1:1, resulting in a total subsidy of up to 60,000 - 100,000 yuan for two levels of government, making many small electric vehicles a zero cost. Negative costs, tempted by this high subsidy, a large number of enterprises do not produce according to the actual market demand, and some companies even fraudulently "cheat up", thus laying the hidden dangers of overcapacity. According to the “2016 China New Energy Vehicle Market Report†issued by Wilson Consulting, it is pointed out that if the government subsidy is deducted, the average market price of domestic self-owned brand new energy vehicles is twice that of joint venture brands, that is, the price advantage of self-owned brands Relying on government subsidies to maintain, with the implementation of the subsidy withdrawal system in the future or even completely canceled, in the face of strong technical and market competitive advantages of joint venture brands, a large number of domestic car enterprises established by policy incentives will face the market cleaning, our country's new The energy automotive market is also bound to have a severe overcapacity crisis.
(B) Single GDP Performance Outlook and Local Protectionism Intensify the Risk of Overcapacity
The current high risk of overcapacity in new energy vehicles is inseparable from the one-sided pursuit of GDP performance by local governments. As one of the emerging industries, the new energy automobile industry has the characteristics of large output value, high profitability, and strong driving capability. Once a new project's production capacity is formed, it will definitely boost local economic growth. For example, after an auto group's new energy passenger vehicle is completed in a province, the estimated annual output of 600,000 vehicles will reach an annual output value of 60 billion yuan, accounting for 1.5% of the province's GDP. It is precisely because of these interests that local governments are enthusiastic about the development of new energy vehicles. Among the 15 companies that have obtained qualification for new energy vehicles, most of them have local governments behind them. This practice of blindly following up on new energy vehicle related projects regardless of local development conditions will surely bury potential risks in the future. In addition, local protectionism also hindered the marketization of new energy vehicles, undermined the market's survival of the inferior and the elimination of the inferior, resulting in the inaccessibility of advantageous enterprises and high-efficiency production capacity, and the survival of vulnerable enterprises and zombie enterprises, thereby aggravating the industry's low-end excess capacity risk.
(III) Low barriers to entry into the industry and the formation of excessive low-end excess capacity
Compared with the high barriers to entry in the traditional automobile manufacturing industry, the barriers to entry for the new energy automotive industry are relatively low. Except for several major core components such as batteries, other high-tech barriers do not exist. According to calculations, the break-even point of traditional fuel vehicles is 2 million vehicles, and the break-even point of electric vehicles is only 100,000-200,000, which is the relatively low entry barrier and broad market space for new energy vehicles. Become a chase for the capital. At present, many companies that do not have the ability to research and develop, produce and manufacture new energy vehicles, or even have no experience in building cars, use the low entry barriers in the new energy automotive industry and do everything possible to take control, establish joint ventures, and enter the supply chain. The investment means will enter the manufacturing field of new energy vehicles, and in the short term, a large number of low-end excess production capacity will be easily formed, which will bring negative impact on the healthy development of China's new energy automotive industry.
Countermeasures and Suggestions
(I) Improve relevant policies and regulations and promote the healthy and orderly development of the industry
In response to the current high risk of overcapacity in the new energy automotive market, first, we must continue to optimize and improve relevant laws and regulations. We should study and formulate a new version of the new energy automobile industry's medium and long-term development strategic plan in order to further clarify various stages of development in accordance with the latest industry and market developments and changes. Industrial development strategies and goals to avoid overcapacity due to blind development. The second is to continue to improve the government procurement system for new energy vehicles, strengthen the preferential procurement and compulsory procurement of new energy vehicles at all levels of government, issue relevant procurement rules, and promote the orderly development of government procurement activities through technical standards control and proportional control. Effectively resolve the excess energy production of new energy vehicles. The third is to promote the combination of “political, industrial, research and applicationâ€, establish a new energy automotive industry partnership, and promote the cooperation of various market entities in the development of new energy automotive industry to overcome the asymmetry of government and enterprise information, lag behind industrial policies, and inefficient implementation of policies. The low level of redundant construction and overcapacity and other issues.
(II) Optimize the way of government subsidies and strengthen the supervision and management of the industry
At present, measures must be taken to optimize the way government subsidies are supported. At the same time, illegal actions such as “cheat compensation†must be effectively cracked down, and the risk of overcapacity must be eliminated from both sides of supply and demand. The first is to continue to improve the “Catalogue of Recommended Vehicles for Popularization and Application of New Energy Vehiclesâ€, and to appropriately increase the frequency of dynamic adjustments for related products entering the catalog based on the latest changes in vehicle energy consumption and power battery technology. The second is to change the “Preferential System†issued by the current subsidy, and turn it into “a strong, rewarding, and strong†to increase the efficiency of financial subsidy support. Third, in order to prevent the central and local governments from causing excessive subsidy due to multiple purchase subsidies, it is suggested that the subsidy direction of local governments should be changed from encouraging purchases to support the use of the government, and preferential policies such as the reduction of parking fees and highway tolls, and free tolls for highways. , further increase the support for the charging infrastructure subsidies and so on. The fourth is to learn from foreign experience, implement the “refund of automobile discount†trade-in policy. Finally, we will increase supervision of the new energy vehicle market and aim at “cheat up†behavior. It is recommended that government agencies jointly monitor and administer relevant industry associations, and establish and improve anonymous reporting mechanisms and rewards and penalties to further increase the use of the Internet and media. To achieve social supervision work.
(III) Changing the performance evaluation criteria of local governments to combat local protectionism
The local protectionism that has not stopped everywhere has caused great harm to the marketization and industrialization of China's new energy vehicles, and has caused low-level redundant construction and excess capacity in the development of new energy vehicles. To this end, the first is to continue to optimize the evaluation criteria for the performance of local government officials and establish a more scientific and diversified evaluation index system for the performance of local governments so as to effectively restrain the investment impulse of local governments and establish the concept of a scientific development concept in the new era. The second is to unify the financial policies of various localities. The central government shall formulate a unified new energy vehicle standard and model catalog, cancel the local catalogue, and force new energy vehicles entering the catalog to enjoy equal treatment in government procurement, market access, and financial subsidies. . Finally, continue to strengthen the management of centralized procurement, and further promote government, state-owned enterprises, public transportation, and other units in the procurement process for new energy vehicles, such as the tender process more open and transparent, to prevent local car care companies to take care of the occurrence.
(D) Increase promotional efforts to nurture and develop the consumer market
Faced with rapid growth in the supply of new energy vehicles, it is necessary to continue to take measures to vigorously cultivate the consumer market and further expand market demand. The first is to continue to strengthen the demonstration and promotion and conduct consumption guidance. We will increase the number and quality of new energy vehicle promotion and create a favorable market environment for the healthy development of new energy vehicles. At the same time, we will strengthen consumer guidance, strengthen government-industry cooperation, and jointly promote consumer awareness from low-carbon travel concepts. The second is to strengthen related infrastructure construction from the "software" and "hardware" aspects. The "software" includes the introduction of infrastructure construction planning, etc. The "hardware" includes the construction of supporting facilities such as charging piles, charging stations, and after-sales service stations. . Finally, speed up the cultivation of the consumer market. Mainly centering on the marketization of new energy vehicles, we will continue to innovate in business models, strive to open up both domestic and international markets, support domestic overcapacity and go abroad, accelerate the development of well-known brands for new energy vehicles, and explore the advancement of electric vehicles in business models. Battery rental service, shared vehicle or fixed charging pile sharing services, and time-shared rental.
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